Iran

So, I’ll be shifting gears a little this week to talk about Iran.

Iran, also known as Persia, is one of the world’s oldest continuous civilizations, dating back to 7000 BC. The first dynasty was formed in the Elamite kingdom in 2800 BC but Iran wasn’t unified for many more years, until the Iranian Medes in 625 BC. For the next 1000 years, Iran was governed by a succession of dynasties which expanded the Persian language and culture throughout the Iranian plateau. Iran was re-unified in 1501 by the Safavid dynasty, which promoted Shiite Islam. In 1925, the Pahlavi dynasty took over until it was overthrown in the Iranian Revolution of 1979. This revolution surprised the world because it was not the result of a military defeat, economic recession, or peasant revolt, and it happened remarkably quickly. As a result of the revolt, a theocratic republic was established and Ayatollah Khomeini returned from exile to rule. Sorry if this is boring, but the history major in me just feels it necessary to go over this stuff. :)

Following the Revolution, Iran-US relations deteriorated quickly as a group of students seized the US embassy in Teheran in November of 1979 and held it with hostages inside until January 1981.

In the wake of the Iranian Revolution and the occupation of the US embassy, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein decided to capitalize on the chaos in the region and expand his country’s access to the Persian Gulf. On September 22, 1980, Iraqi forces invaded Khuzestan, a province in West-central Iran, beginning the Iran-Iraq War. Although Iranian troops pushed out the Iraqis by 1982, Ayatollah Khomeini dreamed of expanding the Iranian Revolution into Iraq and so pushed it until 1988, when he reluctantly agreed to a truce engineered by the UN. During the Iran-Iraq War, there were between 500,000 and 1 million Iranian casualties, largely due to Iraq’s use of chemical weapons, which they later denied.

Ultimate political authority in Iran rests with the Supreme Leader, currently Ali-Hoseini Khamenei. This position is appointed for life to a religious scholar by the Assembly of Experts. The head of government is the president, currently Mahmud Ahmadinejad, who was elected by popular vote in 2005 for a four-year term.

Previous to Ahmadinejad, since 1997, the president was a reformer by the name of Mohammad Khatami. He advocated freedom of expression, a free market, and a tolerant society. However, conservative elements in society coalesced and so the movement was largely unsuccessful and actually culminated in the 2005 election of Ahmadinejad.

Geographically, Iran is the 18th-largest country in the world, just a little larger than the state of Alaska. Its mountainous terrain is divided into 30 separate provinces, with the national capital located at Teheran. However, the most important things about Iran’s geography are its vast oil deposits and its strategic location on the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Both of these things contribute to its status as a major oil producer and exporter.

In the past, high oil prices have allowed Iran to expand its economy greatly, amassing over $70 billion in foreign exchange reserves. However, now that oil prices have dropped, the government is facing difficulties because of its extreme dependence on oil. Both inflation and unemployment have expanded uncomfortably, at the same time as increasing “brain drain” as young professionals leave to work in the West. Part of the problem is that the state is very in control of most economic activity, leaving only small-scale workshops, services and farming to the private sector. Additionally, the economy is weighed down by various price controls and subsidies, which President Ahmadinejad has been trying to reform. However, his previous measures have been met by resistance.

Unfortunately, the economy of Iran provides a hotbed for corruption and informal market activity, including trafficking of heroin from Afghanistan as well as trafficking of women and children who come to, through, and from Iran.

Socially, Iran is relatively homogenous. The population is about 65,875,224 (as of July 2008) and is ethnically 51% Persian and 24% Azeri, with the remaining 25% made up of a few ethnic groups including the Kurds, Gilaki and Mazandarani, Arabs, Lur, Balochs, and Turkmen. 58% of the population speaks Persian and Persian dialects, and 26% speak Turkic and Turkic dialects. As a theocratic state, it is religion which most unifies Iran, however- 98% of the country is Muslim, with 89% of that number being Shiite. The remaining 2% includes Zoroastrians, Jews, Christians, and Baha’i.

Iran has one of the highest urban growth rates in the world. Seven million people, a full 11% of the population, live in the capital city of Teheran. Throughout the rest of the country, 60% of the population lives in cities such as Isfahan, Ahvaz, and Qom. The UN predicts that by 2030, 80% of the population will be urban. This has led to some environmental issues, however, such as heavy air pollution over Teheran. To cope with this problem, the Iranian government announced in July 2007 its intention to no longer produce cars that run solely on gas; but rather Iran will only produce gas/electric cars. Iran is party to the Kyoto Protocol.

In terms of military, my impression of Iran is that although there are no overt, outright problems, the state is certainly a potential threat. Their military spending is only 2.5-3% of the GDP, the lowest of any Persian Gulf nation. Also, Iran has not invaded any country in two centuries; their military doctrine is based on deterrence. However, GlobalSecurity.org estimates that the Iranian government could mobilize an army of a million men.

They also have nuclear ambitions and have refused calls from the US and UN to halt their uranium enrichment program. In August 2008, the informal deadline set by the West for the end of Iran’s nuclear program passed unheeded; in September, the UN passed new resolutions prohibiting its uranium enrichment program. Nevertheless, no new sanctions were imposed, so the program continues.

It is the fact of Iran’s belligerence in Israel and Lebanon that worries Western powers. Iran refuses to acknowledge Israel as a state, and the situation was made worse in July 2008 when Iran announced the test-firing of a new long-range missile called the Shahab-3 that can hit targets in Israel. Iran has also been designated as a state sponsor of terrorism in Lebanon and elsewhere. So although the government is relatively peaceful at face value, it is the under-the-table forces in Iran which present a problem to world security.

To sum up Iran’s foreign policy, Wikipedia says:

“Iran’s foreign relations are based on two strategic principles: eliminating
outside influences in the region and pursuing extensive diplomatic contacts with
developing and non-aligned countries.”

On the whole, Iran is a very interesting country. It seems to have always been an anomaly- in the past, its literature, philosophy, mathematics, medicine, astronomy, and art have been major influences in the Middle East and around the world. Today, it is a regional power with an unstable economy, under-the-table economic and military activity, and potentially lethal capabilities- and yet pursues policies of deterrence (at least officially) in its relations.